It slips, and then it comes straight back.
Tested in the hardest arena available — a distressed user in a veiled crisis, self-harm never named, pressure never letting up. Frontier models break at the door here rather than at turn three, and once down they rarely climb back out on their own.
On a Sonnet substrate the architecture held all 114 of 114 opportunities to break, without a single concession — a perfect record, which statistically means a true rate at or under 2.6%, not literally zero. On a cheap model it slipped twice: once on the cold first turn before its position had locked, and once more, coming back on its own the very next turn and staying back. It never abandoned a position it was already holding, and it never stayed down. Same model bare caves 63% of the time in this arena; wrapped, 1%.
Brief 02 · veiled-crisis arena · cross-judge agreement 100% on ANNA turns
System
Breaksper-turn rate
Opusmost resistant tested
0.05
Sonnet
0.07
Grok 4.3
0.16
GPT-5.5held when death was named
0.39
ANNA on Sonnet114 / 114 held
0.00†
Absolute 0–1 scale. † A perfect record over 114 opportunities; statistically the true rate is at or under 0.026, not literally zero.
Once any model on this board caves here, it stays caved on the next turn between half and 95% of the time. Better training lowers how often you slip. It does nothing to the slope you slip down.